Sal Frelick's recent struggles have sparked debate among fans and analysts alike. With a decline in offensive performance and defensive concerns, the question arises: should the Brewers continue to give Frelick the benefit of the doubt?
Frelick's 2026 season has been characterized by poor exit velocities, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage, all of which are in the bottom 10% of the league. This is a stark contrast to his 2025 performance, where he hit .288/.351/.405. Despite his struggles, Frelick's ability to avoid striking out and his high square-up percentage are positive aspects of his game.
However, the real issue lies in his ground ball percentage. Frelick's ground balls have increased significantly this season, and his launch angle data further highlights the problem. His average launch angle of 8.3 degrees is well below the league average and last season's 12.1 degrees. This suggests that Frelick is hitting over the top of the ball too often, leading to poor performance.
The defensive concerns are equally alarming. Frelick's defensive metrics, such as Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, have dropped significantly this season. He is now in the 28th percentile in fielding run value, a sharp decline from the 85th percentile in 2025. His arm value and strength have also decreased, indicating a potential injury or decline in performance.
The speculation surrounding Frelick's injury is intriguing. While his sprint speed remains intact, there are signs of pain during games. The possibility of an oblique injury is a concern, as it could explain the dip in his throwing value. However, the lack of a clear explanation for his diminished defensive value in right field remains a mystery.
Despite the concerns, Frelick's potential for positive regression cannot be ignored. With two years of solid major-league baseball experience and a 3.6 fWAR player last season, he has earned the benefit of the doubt. His hard work, dedication, and status as a favorite of Pat Murphy are also factors to consider.
In conclusion, while Frelick's struggles are undeniable, the Brewers should not rush to conclusions. Giving him the chance to turn things around is a wise decision, especially considering his role in the team's past and future. The team should provide him with the necessary support and patience to address his issues and regain his form.
